Here’s why bears hope to pin Bitcoin under $60K ahead of Friday’s $1.1B options expiry

Here’s why bears hope to pin Bitcoin under $60K ahead of Friday’s $1.1B options expiry

Bitcoin will likely fall to $60,000 in the next few days according to some major bearish predictions. The cryptocurrency made a significant move down this week on July 26th amid uncertainties about futures on exchanges and Wall Street’s call for regulation. Some analysts are looking at Bitcoin potentially falling below $5,500 as well. It is not clear what would happen if it falls through its September options expiration but many are hoping that it does so they can sell their positions before prices decline further..

The “coinbase” is a cryptocurrency exchange that has been in operation since 2012. The “coinbase” has seen a price drop of over 80% from its all-time high of $19,500.

When the price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose over $69,000 on Nov. 10, bulls were ecstatic because the 14.5 percent gain collected over five days meant they’d be in line for a $715 million profit on Friday’s options expiration.

Bulls were taken off guard by the 9 percent price drop on Nov. 16, particularly because most call (purchase) options for Friday were priced at $66,000 or higher. Surprisingly, that level of pricing has been the exception rather than the rule.

Here’s why bears hope to pin Bitcoin under $60K ahead of Friday’s $1.1B options expiryOn FTX, there is a Bitcoin/USD price. TradingView is the source of this information.

Because the two unfavorable incidents occurred during the last several days, the Bears may have been fortunate. The US Securities and Exchange Commission declined VanEck’s proposal for a spot Bitcoin ETF on November 12. The logic behind the decision was more crucial than the rejection itself, which was widely predicted.

The SEC expressed its concerns about Tether’s (USDT) stablecoin, as well as the inability to prevent fraud and market manipulation in Bitcoin trading. The refusal came as no surprise to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst and bitcoin specialist Eric Balchunas, who had predicted a 1% probability of acceptance.

Furthermore, on Nov. 15, US President Joe Biden signed the infrastructure bill, which requires digital asset transactions worth more than $10,000 to be reported to the Internal Revenue Service beginning in 2024.

Given the aforementioned scenario, bulls are sure to be kicking themselves for not taking more cautious bets on Friday’s $1.1 billion weekly options expiration.

Here’s why bears hope to pin Bitcoin under $60K ahead of Friday’s $1.1B options expiryThe total open interest in bitcoin options for November 19 has been calculated. Bybt is the source.

On the surface, the $630 million call (buy) options seem to have a 35 percent advantage over the $470 million put (sell) options. Even yet, the 1.35 call-to-put ratio is misleading since most optimistic wagers will almost certainly be wiped off by the recent price drop.

If Bitcoin’s price stays below $62,000 at 8:00 a.m. UTC on Nov. 19, for example, just $68 million worth of call (purchase) options will be available at expiration. For example, if Bitcoin is selling below $64,000, the right to acquire it at that price is worthless.

Bears are looking for bargains below $60,000.

The four most probable possibilities for the $1.1 billion expiration on November 19 are shown below. The possible profit is represented by the imbalance favoring either side. In other words, the number of active call (buy) and put (sell) contracts fluctuates based on the expiration price:

  • 10 calls vs. 3,840 puts between $58,000 and $60,000. As a consequence, the put (bear) options are worth $220 million more than the call (bull) options.
  • 910 calls vs. 1,950 puts between $60,000 and $62,000. The overall outcome favors the put (bear) instruments by $60 million.
  • 2,030 calls vs. 940 puts between $62,000 and $64,000. As a consequence, the call (bull) options have a $70 million advantage.
  • 2,920 calls vs. 240 puts over $64,000. The overall outcome favors the call (bull) instruments by $175 million.

Call options are employed solely in bullish wagers, whereas put options are used exclusively in neutral-to-bearish transactions, according to this rough estimate. This oversimplification, however, ignores more complicated investing techniques.

A trader, for example, may have sold a call option to get positive exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) above a certain price. Unfortunately, there is no simple method to calculate this impact.

To reverse the tables, the Bulls will need a 6% price increase.

Bulls can only make a large profit on Friday’s expiration if they can drive Bitcoin’s price beyond $64,000, which is 6% higher than the current $60,400. If the present short-term bearish attitude continues, bears might apply pressure and attempt to profit up to $220 million if Bitcoin price remains around $58,000.

Data from the options markets now favor put (sell) options, lowering the chances of a rise before Nov. 19.

The author’s thoughts and opinions are purely his or her own and do not necessarily represent those of Cointelegraph. Every investing and trading decision has some level of risk. When making a choice, you should do your own research.

It is widely expected that Bitcoin will drop below $60K before the end of this week, which may result in massive losses for investors. Reference: bitcoin price cointelegraph.

  • bitcoin news
  • ethereum price
  • dogecoin price
  • cointelegraph manipulation
  • dogecoin collapse

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